As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his return to the White House, the world is watching closely, especially in terms of his unconventional leadership style and its geopolitical ramifications.

While many in Europe may dread a Trump presidency, nations in Asia could find themselves in a surprisingly advantageous position. His transactional approach to politics—shaped by his background as a businessman—will likely continue to influence his policies, with divergent impacts across continents.

Trump as a businessman

At his core, Donald Trump is a businessman, and his first term in office underscored this reality. Decisions were often framed through the lens of deal-making rather than historical alliances or diplomatic niceties.

He took an aggressive stance toward traditional institutions like NATO, withdrew from the Paris Agreement, and even floated the idea of purchasing Greenland. Trump also sought closer relationships with strongmen leaders in Asia, such as China’s Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte.

These actions highlight his preference for pragmatic, often unpredictable, foreign policy that prioritizes American interests over long-established diplomatic norms, particularly with European allies.

Impact on Europe

Many European leaders are apprehensive about a second Trump term, given the strain his first presidency placed on transatlantic relations. Trump’s skepticism toward multilateral agreements, preference for bilateral negotiations, and “America First” rhetoric made cooperation with the U.S. more unpredictable.

This approach has the potential to destabilize long-standing alliances, complicate issues like NATO funding, and hinder collective action on global challenges such as climate change and regional conflicts. Europe, which relies heavily on cooperative strategies, may find itself navigating an increasingly uncertain and fragmented geopolitical landscape under Trump’s leadership.

Europe’s diminishing influence

The outlook for the U.K. and Europe appears particularly bleak. Europe is grappling with multiple internal challenges, including a declining population, fraught immigration policies, and policies on climate change that stand in stark contrast to Trump’s agenda.

The European Union itself faces increasing discord among member states, as they struggle to reconcile competing interests—such as disagreements over tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and varying approaches to environmental regulations. These internal divisions undermine Europe’s negotiating power, especially in the context of ongoing crises like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has serious implications for energy and security across the continent.

Many analysts anticipate a shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine under a second Trump presidency. Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to end the war and has suggested leveraging his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a peace deal. This raises significant concerns in Kyiv, with experts predicting that U.S. aid to Ukraine could diminish. Political scientist Ivan Katchanovski and others have warned that Trump’s return could spell difficult times for Ukraine, as his focus on quick resolutions and reducing U.S. involvement might lead to a withdrawal of support.

Opportunities for Asia

In contrast, countries in Asia may find themselves in a more favorable position under Trump’s transactional diplomacy. Nations like Japan and India could use a potential second Trump presidency as an opportunity to solidify their strategic partnerships with the U.S., particularly in terms of security and economic ties. Trump’s tendency to prioritize immediate, tangible benefits in negotiations could lead Asian countries to secure more favorable terms in trade and defense agreements.

For China, a more transactional U.S. approach could necessitate recalibrating strategies to account for a more assertive stance from Washington, while also seeking ways to increase its own regional influence. The dynamic between the U.S. and Asian nations, historically centered around trade partnerships, could evolve under Trump’s leadership into a more direct and market-oriented relationship. This may provide Asian economies with new opportunities, particularly in areas like technology, infrastructure, and energy.

Asia’s growing power

Trump’s primary focus on American interests does not necessarily spell a decline in trade with Asia; in fact, he is likely to push for more equitable trade relationships, especially with China and other Asian economies. With two of the world’s largest economies—China and India—dominating the region, Trump will recognize the economic potential these markets offer for U.S. exports. As a result, Asian nations could find themselves in a stronger negotiating position, benefiting from more favorable trade terms with the U.S.

Asia’s growing economic influence is further bolstered by a rapidly expanding intra-regional trade network. Recent improvements in relations between India and China, highlighted by their discussions at the BRICS summit, indicate a shift toward greater regional cooperation. Emerging trade blocs like BRICS+ and ASEAN showcase Asia’s growing ability to negotiate from a position of strength, with fewer regional conflicts undermining its stability.

Geopolitical implications of Trump’s return

Trump’s leadership style, focused on short-term gains and transactional deals, could be an opportunity for Asia to deepen economic ties and expand its influence.

While Europe may face declining influence and an uncertain future, Asian nations are likely to benefit from a new era of trade relations where the emphasis is placed on negotiation and mutual advantage. This shift could encourage significant investments in sectors like technology, where figures like Elon Musk, a Trump supporter, are already playing a key role in driving innovation.

In the broader context of global politics, a second Trump presidency will have varied consequences across regions, benefiting some while presenting challenges to others. As Trump pursues his “America First” agenda, both allies and rivals will need to adapt to this new era of international relations.