The shock waves from a new war in the Middle East are rippling far beyond the Gulf, unsettling fuel markets, financial forecasts, and the security calculations of governments thousands of miles away.

In Southeast Asia, leaders are taking steps to shield both their economies and their citizens, underscoring how swiftly distant battles can become domestic crises. For the Philippines, which has thousands of citizens living and working across the Middle East, the risks are both immediate and far-reaching.

On February 28, Israel and the United States launched what they called “Operation Roaring Lion,” striking targets in Iran after weeks of rising tensions and failed diplomacy. Tehran retaliated with missile attacks across the region, widening a conflict that now stretches from Israel to parts of the Gulf.

Speaking that evening at a Chinese New Year dinner in Singapore, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that the consequences would not be confined to the battlefield.

“For weeks, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been building up,” he said. “The U.S. has assembled a huge military force in the Middle East—aircraft, aircraft carriers, destroyers, missile defenses, missile attack weapons—and today, Israel and the U.S. together attack Iran jointly. The war has begun,” Lee said.

The immediate concern, he added, is energy. “This is going to affect energy prices and impact countries far away from the Middle East, like Singapore,” Lee noted. “You can see when the war will start. It is very hard to tell how the war will end.”

For Singapore, one of the world’s most open economies and a global refining and shipping hub, sustained disruption in oil supply or sea lanes would quickly filter through to inflation, trade flows, and investment sentiment. Lee warned that prolonged uncertainty could prove as damaging as any single price spike.

“The overall climate of uncertainty created by these dramatic twists and turns will dampen the global climate for trade and investment, for cooperation and prosperity,” he said.

Across Southeast Asia, governments struck varying tones—from mediation to condemnation—reflecting both diplomatic traditions and domestic pressures.

In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto signaled a willingness to step into a mediating role.

“The Indonesian government—in this case, our president—expresses readiness to facilitate dialogue so the security situation will return to a conducive state. If accepted by both sides, the president is willing to head to Tehran for mediation,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Jakarta stopped short of directly condemning the strikes, even as Iran called for an “open condemnation.” Instead, it stressed the collapse of earlier diplomacy.

“Indonesia deeply regrets the failure of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, which have resulted in military escalation in the Middle East,” the statement read, urging all parties to exercise restraint and prioritize “resolving differences through peaceful means.”

In Thailand, the emphasis was on evacuation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued its second advisory since the airstrikes, urging Thai nationals in high-risk areas—particularly in Iran and Israel—to leave while commercial flights remain available or seek shelter from potential missile attacks. It also advised Thais to reconsider nonessential travel to the region, warning that the conflict could intensify and spread.

Malaysia took a firmer rhetorical stance. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim condemned the Israeli strikes as a “vile attempt to sabotage ongoing negotiations” and warned that the escalation risks pushing the Middle East “to the edge of catastrophe.” He called for an immediate and unconditional cessation of hostilities and urged the U.S. and Iran to pursue diplomatic solutions, while pressing the international community to respond “without double standards.”

He also expressed concern for Malaysians in affected areas and said his government was coordinating with regional partners to ensure their protection.

In Manila, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. focused squarely on the safety of overseas Filipinos. The Philippines has thousands of workers deployed across the Middle East, from construction sites in the Gulf to hospitals and households throughout the region, and remittances remain a pillar of the Philippine economy.

“We have received reports of airstrikes which hit Iran. We are in the process of getting more information. In the meantime, the safety of Filipino citizens in Iran and in the Middle East is paramount. I have instructed the DFA and the DMW to take measures to determine their whereabouts in affected areas and to take immediate measures to ensure their safety,” Marcos said in a social media post.

For the Philippines, the stakes are both human and economic: the safety of its citizens abroad and the stability of remittance flows at home.

Across Southeast Asia’s trade-driven and labor-exporting economies, a war thousands of miles away can quickly reshape daily life.

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